The Uncertainty Principle: The Four Types of People in Innovation

There are few stereotypes that fit entrepreneurs well.  Some are short, some are tall.  Some have Ivy League degrees, others never finished high school. Some have parents who are entrepreneurs, while others have no ties to startups in their family.  Despite all these differences, there is one thing that they all share: a high tolerance for uncertainty.

Being an entrepreneur is inherently filled with uncertainty; a startup has many more questions than answers, hypotheses than confirmed theorems.  The degree to which you can accept uncertainty directly relates to how you’re likely involved in startups. Here are the 4 personas of uncertainty.  Where do you stand?

The Uncertainty Principle: The Four Types of People in Innovation

1) The Cogs – AKA: Certainty Dependants

The first persona is actually the most common in the world. The average working age person enjoys a great deal of certainty in their careers.  They’re the, “small cog in the big machine.”  You work for an established company.  Barring a complete economic meltdown, you know you have job security; your 401k, salary and benefits are all part of a master sliding scale. You know your job from day to day and punch the proverbial time clock week to week knowing you’re putting in your small contribution to the big machine each week.

Bottom line: If you’re not a risk taker and much prefer to be told what’s next...welcome to the cog group; large companies are always in need of many cogs to keep their machines running.

2) Late Stage Startup Employees – AKA: Lower Risk Takers

The second persona are people who enjoy the creative environments of startups, but with much of the early risk removed.  As a startup grows, they need people who can help take a vision for a great company and become a part of that execution. The uncertainty lies in the implementation of that vision and the flexibility for the company to still make some course corrections while expanding.  If you join a company as a late stage employee, you’re still getting a steady salary, the company is likely profitable and you have many of the same benefits of “cogs.” The main difference from the “cog” is that there’s not the certainty of the company’s future; there’s still some chance of failure and the company is less likely to survive if problems arise.

Bottom Line: If you enjoy some aspects of startup culture, but can’t tolerate the risk associated with startups before they really gain traction, this is the group for you.  While not as large as the “cog” group, this is the second most common type of person. Growing startups need you.

3) First Followers – AKA – Moderate to High Risk Takers

The third persona are people who are the first employees of a startup.  If you haven’t seen the TED Talk on celebrating these people who act as the “flint that makes the spark that makes the fire,” you need to watch it.  These people validate the crazy ideas and help make reality of the vision of founders. Without them, startups would not survive.  If you join a company as an early stage employee, you’ll likely get some of the benefits of the cogs; they’ll likely be able to pay you week to week with some certainty (or if early enough, perhaps not), but you will not be sure that the company will survive.  In exchange for this risk taking, you’ll receive equity, so if the company does well, you will gain significant benefits. However, if the company does poorly your equity will have no value and will likely leave you less compensated than you could have been as a cog.

Bottom Line: If you love startup culture, like being a part of making an idea that has traction really take off, then you’re an early stage employee.  Without “First Followers,” startups would never be able to become more than a founder’s vision.

4) The Founders – AKA – Borderline Irrational Risk Takers

The final persona is for a rare and special group. These are the people that see the world and say, “there’s a better way to do this.”  They’re willing to take great leaps of faith and try to change the reality around them to create something from nothing but an idea or vision in their head.  These people will often quit reliable, safe jobs to try to make it happen.  The “cogs” of the world will find these people completely irrational, but Founders know the invigoration of creating something new and the exciting nature of not knowing what’s next.  If you’re founding a company, there is nothing that is filled with more uncertainty.  Your entire mission is to slowly build your idea into reality, which slowly builds the certainty the other personas all desire to different degrees.

Bottom Line: If you love startups and find yourself drawn to making one of your ideas a reality despite all the obstacles and “common sense” that says to be a “cog,” then rock on! You’re a Founder.

The world only works because there are a balance of the above 4 personas. If everyone were founders, we’d have no large companies and we’d have problems even finding “First Followers.”  Of course, with only “cogs,” there’d be no innovation. 

What level of uncertainty can you handle? What persona are you?